It is easy for me to avoid the weak writing cliché and Dickens this up.
But, my goodness, all evidence says the MLB season is going to be spectacular or horrible.
I can’t decide which. But it’s back.
For one, we have to get out of our feelings on the fact that they should be playing games already.
ESPN’s silly experiment of showing Korean baseball games in the wee hours, a methadone for the desperate, began two months ago. There is no question that regardless of the coronavirus numbers, if MLB owners wanted to have baseball, there would be a slate of games on today.
But since a shortened season was a given, the main question has been how many games they would get in.
The final 60-game schedule that commissioner Rob Manfred implemented on the owners’ behalf, will turn the season into a full-on pennant race from Day 1. That could be exciting.
Of course, with empty stadiums, the atmosphere for these baseball game might be a problem. I couldn’t stand more than a few minutes of the Korean product. What a stale scene.
For the most part, the sounds, or lack thereof, sounded like practice.
MLB will be bigger and better because of the names we know, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be a good or exciting television product.
Playoff baseball is so much better than regular season baseball in large part because the crowd is locked in for nearly every pitch. Every hit, every baserunner brings the crowd to its feet.
Spring training games are the polar opposite. Blah, blah, blah.
These games will count more than any regular season games in history, but they won’t look real.
The rule changes will make a difference, too.
The National League playing with the designated hitter is something we have expected for years. That’ll change the power ranking among teams.
So will the no-spitting rule. I’m kidding. (I think.)
Oh yeah, let’s see them enforce that one. I mean, the body produces up to four pints of saliva a day. You have to do something with it.
Will they eject a guy for ejecting?
Allowing pitchers to bring a wet rag to the mound, could be a fun addition to the game. Water is the only substance that will be allowed on the rag.
Of course, there will be cheating. It’s baseball.
You know darn well someone is going to try to get away with bringing a snot rag to the mound.
Side note: My man Chandler Rome counting how many times a pitcher licked his fingers in a start is some next-level analytics.
The rule that could have the biggest effect on who wins or loses is the change in extra innings.
I loved covering high school softball. I always thought it was better than high school baseball.
The international tiebreaker rule — a runner is placed on second base to start each team’s at-bat in extra innings — fits that sport perfectly.
It is crazy for professional baseball.
I would have bet, and lost, a lot of money that such a rule would never be implemented in the majors.
This gives road teams a huge advantage. They get to start extra innings with a guy on second base and no outs.
Yes, the home team also will get to do the same in their half of the frame, but there is a huge difference in starting an at-bat with a guy on second base in a tie game versus doing it facing a deficit, which is going to most often be the case for home teams.
This calculation gives visiting teams a 66.4 percent chance of winning such a game.
A game is a game, of course, but in this shortened season, each contest takes on far more significance than in a regular 162-game season. Extra-inning games with road teams having such a huge advantage could be pivotal.
Presumably, home teams will already lose some measure of their edge because crowds will be non-existent or, at best, limited.
The Astros were 10-4 in extra innings last season.
How random are these extra-inning games?
They went into the 10th inning just twice in their first 60 games last season, and the second one was the 60th game.
But in their next 60 games, the Astros played eight extra-inning games.
Imagine missing out on the playoffs because the randomness of extra-inning games was turned into a statistical disadvantage by the tiebreaker rule.
We have a few weeks to gear up for what could be one heck of a ride.
Or a sham of a season.
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June 24, 2020 at 09:07PM
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Solomon: Let's see how MLB's short season plays out - Houston Chronicle
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