So, we meet again.
We’re still in uncharted territory, and we’re still dealing with a pandemic. We’re still waiting for sports to return and, if you’re like me, you’re starting to stream really weird shows, like “My Strange Addiction,” where you can watch an episode highlighting an adult male and his relationship with 15 pool floats (spoiler: the giraffe float gets most of his attention).
One change: We’re figuring out the best strategies for drafting a fantasy baseball team for a (fingers crossed) 60-game season.
The key will be constructing your pitching staff. Loading up on high-end hurlers, like Jacob deGrom or Stephen Strasburg, is risky. Not only will it leave your team with big holes on offense, as those top-tier arms have big price tags, but one or two bad starts will do a lot of harm. There is little room for error in this abbreviated season, and their names and price don’t guarantee success. Loading up on non-closers will help your ratios and be cost effective, but they’re drafted to bolster your staff, not lead it. You need starters who will deliver quality innings while limiting damage.
Roto Rage believes you should load up on offense over the first several rounds before targeting cheaper pitching options for the bulk of your rotation. You could start with Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff around the seventh round.
Before being sidelined by a strained left oblique in late July last season, Woodruff was 11-3 with a 3.75 ERA, 136 strikeouts over 117 ²/₃ innings and just 29 walks. He even made his first All-Star team.
Woodruff had solid walk (6.1 percent) and strikeout (29.0 percent) rates, and an 11.6 percent swinging-strike percentage. He also had a 3.01 FIP and an inflated .320 BABIP, which indicates he got unlucky as hitters were not making a lot of hard contact against him.
If a full 162-game slate were being played, Roto Rage likely wouldn’t recommend pulling the trigger on Woodruff at his current 85.69 average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm, but there’s so much to like about the hard-throwing Brewers ace in this kind of setting.
A look at some other mid- to late-round options to build your rotation:
Before being suspended 80 games after testing positive for a performance enhancing substance, Oakland’s Frankie Montas (107.83 ADP) allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his 16 starts while going 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 2.2 walks per nine and 9.7 strikeouts per nine. Flamethrowing A’s teammate Jesus Luzardo (113.86) may be an even better, more intriguing option — especially with no innings limit to be concerned about.
San Diego’s Dinelson Lamet (122.43) remains a Roto Rage favorite after his 33.6 percent strikeout rate, .223 opponent average and 14.1 percent swinging strike percentage over his 14 starts in 2019.
Atlanta’s Max Fried (127.52) finished last season with a 4.02 ERA, but he also had 17 wins, a 24 percent strikeout rate, 6 percent walk rate and a 53 percent groundball rate. The 26-year-old also had a FIP (3.72) and xFIP (3.32), that indicates he was unlucky.
Kenta Maeda (165.86) — who has a career 3.87 ERA, 1.151 WHIP and 26.4 percent strikeout percentage — is no longer going to be tossed between the bullpen and the rotation. He’s a full-time starter for an up-and-coming Twins squad.
Another cheap option familiar with the IL who should benefit from the shortened schedule: Angels lefty Andrew Heaney (189.97). Before going 1-3 with an ugly 7.66 ERA and .327 opponent average in September, he was 3-3 with a 3.95 ERA, .222 opponent average and 88 strikeouts in 70 ²/₃ innings. He also recorded the lowest contact rate of his career and 11.1 strikeouts per nine. Considering he has worked more than 106 innings just once in his big-league career, making 10-13 starts should be a piece of cake.
Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller (234.55) had an unsightly 7.13 ERA, 1.833 WHIP and 3.0 walks per nine over 11 starts in 2019, but it is hard to ignore his 12.2 strikeouts per nine or the 3.19 FIP.
Other options worth a late flier on include the White Sox’s 24-year-old Tommy John surgery returnee Michael Kopech (247.00), 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello (277.40) of the Mets and Toronto’s Nate Pearson (287.35), who had a 2.19 ERA and 10.7 strikeouts per nine over three seasons in the minors.
Fantasy pitcher rankings
Starters
1. Jacob deGrom, NYM
2. Gerrit Cole, NYY
3. Max Scherzer, WAS
4. Justin Verlander, HOU
5. Walker Buehler, LAD
6. Jack Flaherty, STL
7. Stephen Strasburg, WAS
8. Shane Bieber, CLE
9. Mike Clevinger, CLE
10. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
11. Luis Castillo, CIN
12. Charlie Morton, TB
13. Patrick Corbin, WAS
14. Lucas Giolito, CWS
15. Chris Paddack, SD
16. Aaron Nola, PHI
17. Zack Greinke, HOU
18. Yu Darvish, CHC
19. Jose Berrios, MIN
20. Blake Snell, TB
21. Tyler Glasnow, TB
22. Trevor Bauer, CIN
23. Sonny Gray, CIN
24. Brandon Woodruff, MIL
25. Corey Kluber, TEX
26. Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
27. Zack Wheeler, PHI
28. Lance Lynn, TEX
29. Mike Soroka, ATL
30. Frankie Montas, OAK
31. Shohei Ohtani, LAA
32. Hyun-Jin Ryu, TOR
33. Max Fried, ATL
34. Dinelson Lamet, SD
35. Jesus Luzardo, OAK
36. Carlos Carrasco, CLE
37. David Price, LAD
38. Zac Gallen, ARI
39. Kyle Hendricks, CHC
40. Madison Bumgarner, ARI
41. Kenta Madea, MIN
42. Matthew Boyd, DET
43. Julio Urias, LAD
44. Robbie Ray, ARI
45. James Paxton=NYY
46. Mike Minor, TEX
47. German Marquez, COL
48. Andrew Heaney, LAA
49. Sean Manaea, OAK
50. Joe Musgrove, PIT
51. Jake Odorizzi, MIN
52. Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
53. Mike Foltynewicz, ATL
54. Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
55. Luke Weaver, ARI
56. Marcus Stroman, NYM
57. Caleb Smith, MIA
58. Jose Urquidy, HOU
59. Jon Gray, COL
60. Joey Lucchesi, SD
61. Dylan Bundy, LAA
62. Mitch Keller. PIT
63. Dallas Keuchel, CWS
64. Carlos Martinez, STL
65. Yonny Chirnos. TB
66. Ryan Yarbrough, TB
67. Sandy Alcantara, MIA
68. Steven Matz, NYM
69. Michael Kopech, CWS
70. Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
71. Miles Mikjolas, STL
72. A.J. Puk, OAK
73. Garrett Richards, SD
74. Adrian Houser, MIL
75. Brendan McKay, TB
76. Cole Hamels, ATL
77. Ross Stripling, LAD
78. Dylan Cease, CWS
79. Alex Wood, LAD
80. Jeff Samardzija, SF
81. Rich Hill, MIN
82. Pablo Lopez, MIA
83. Marco Gonzales, SEA
84. Aaron Civale, CLE
85. Dustin May, LAD
86. Rick Porcello, NYM
87. Anibal Sanchez, WAS
88. Nathan Eovaldi, BOS
89. Michael Pineda, MIN
90. Griffin Canning, LAA
91. Chris Bassitt. OAK
92. John Means, BAL
93. Reynaldo Lopez, CWS
94. Dakota Hudson, STL
95. MacKenzie Gore, SD
96. Josh Lindblom, MIL
97. Freddy Peralta, MIL
98. Mike Fiers, OAK
99. Kevin Gausman, SF
100. Julio Teheran, LAA
Relievers
1. Josh Hader. MIL
2. Kirby Yates, SD
3. Aroldis Chapman, NYY
4. Liam Hendriks, OAK
5. Roberto Osuna, HOU
6. Taylor Rogers, MIN
7. Edwin Diaz, NYM
8. Brad Hand, CLE
9. Raisel Iglesias, CIN
10. Kenley Jansen, LAD
11. Ken Giles, TOR
12. Archie Bradley, ARI
13. Brandon Workman, BOS
14. Nick Anderson, TB
15. Craig Kimbrel, CHC
16. Hector Neris, PHI
17. Hansel Robles, LAA
18. Sean Doolittle, WAS
19. Alex Colome, CWS
20. Mark Melancon, ATL
21. Jose LeClerc, TEX
22. Giovanny Gallegos, STL
23. Ian Kennedy, KC
24. Will Smith, ATL
25. Joe Jiminez, DET
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Fantasy baseball: Embrace these value pitchers in short season - New York Post
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